The Ministry of Justice is on course for further budget cuts running into hundreds of millions of pounds over the next few years, according to the government’s official forecaster.
In its analysis of yesterday’s autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility outlines the impact on unprotected departments if the government sticks with Treasury spending assumptions.
With health and education protected, day-to-day spending elsewhere will need to fall by 2.3% a year in real terms from 2025-26, says the OBR. If defence spending is held flat as a proportion of GDP and spending on foreign aid is increased, as the government intends, unprotected spending will need to fall by an average of 4.1% a year.
The MoJ’s ‘resource DEL’ - day-to-day spending budget - for 2023-24 is nearly £11bn.
‘Delivering a 2.3% a year real terms fall in day-to-day spending would present challenges,’ says the OBR. ‘Performance indicators for public services continue to show signs of strain, for example the backlog in Crown courts reached a record high of 65,000 in August 2023 and 11 section 114s notices have been issued by local authorities since 2018, compared to two in the preceding 18 years.
‘The Institute for Government’s recent report found that performance in eight out of nine major public services has declined since 2010.’
The forecasts are of course contingent on the outcome of a general election expected in 2024 and decisions made by the next government.
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