I read your article, ‘Profession's growth "defies gravity’’’ with interest. Although I agree it seems odd that the profession is apparently continuing to grow during the recession, it is not growing by as much as 7%, as your article suggests.

The Law Society's annual statistical report for 2009 states that on 31 July 2009, 115,475 solicitors held practising certificates. Your article gives the figure of 120,847 on 31 December 2010, which is a rise of 4.65% over that 17-month period. Although I have not seen the Solicitors Regulation Authority's Summary of Performance Measures and Statistics for December 2010 (from which I assume you obtained your figures), it is important to note that, according to the September summary, there were 120,917 practising solicitors in September 2010 – a rise of 2% over the previous year.

Although the number of solicitors with practising certificates may have been 7% higher on 31 December 2010 than a year before, there were fewer of them than there had been on 30 September 2010. Accordingly, I submit that the number of practising solicitors is already beginning to fall.

Although your SRA spokesman thinks the rise in numbers in 2010 is surprising, I disagree.

First, the profession has a robust record. The number of solicitors holding practising certificates has risen every year since 1972 save for 1983, when it fell by only 0.07% despite the four recessions that occurred over this period.

Second, it is probable that a record number of persons were admitted to the Roll in 2010. This is important because the rise in numbers is attributable to the surplus of the number of people who enter the profession over the number who leave it. In 2007/08, 6,303 training contracts – a record number – were registered by the SRA, with a further 5,809 (the third-largest number on record) registered in 2008/09; therefore, a bumper crop of people will have completed their training contracts and qualified in 2010. Moreover, it is probable that the number of Qualified Lawyers Transfer Test entrants will have also risen as foreign lawyers rushed to take the QLTT before it was replaced by the more rigorous (and expensive) Qualified Lawyers Transfer Scheme on 1 September 2010.

I suspect that, with fewer training contracts having been offered over the past 18 months, and with fewer people choosing QLTS because of the increased rigour and expense, the number of admissions will soon be falling. Additionally, there will be a knock-on effect on the numbers on the Roll and those holding practising certificates.

It is also important not to confuse the number of solicitors with practising certificates with the number of practising solicitors. Not all solicitors with practising certificates are practising; some of those who are not working retain their practising certificates so they can start to practise as soon as they find a job. This is cheaper than it was due to the introduction of the new individual PC fee in 2010, so I suspect more unemployed solicitors than before are retaining their PCs.

The growth in the profession’s size is not defying gravity but falling. Despite what professor Mayson says, where the expanding numbers are coming from is not surprising. What is mystifying is what they [who?] are doing and what they are going to do.

David Dixon, Council member for South Wales, the Law Society; senior professional tutor, Centre for Professional Legal Studies, Cardiff Law School